2012: Is Nicaragua coming or going?

Analysis.

The advent of the New Year is usually a time to look ahead and plan new beginnings. But for many Nicaraguans, 2012 may feel like a glimpse into the past and a repeat of old beginnings.

Nicaragua is trying to slide into 2012 by straddling two moving sidewalks moving in opposition directions. The effect is a country that appears to be simultaneously moving forwards and backwards, depending on the angle of observation. Either way, the government’s balancing act is becoming increasingly precarious as it gets pulled into a crotch-threatening split.

Sandinista boosters point to the country’s solid economic growth, poverty reduction and development as telltale signs of forward motion. Nicaragua’s economic growth level for 2011 is expected to finish at 4.5%, and the country will reaffirm its record-setting pace for export-growth, foreign direct investment and tourism revenue.

Indeed Nicaragua is in the midst of one of its most impressive economic growth spurts in more than a decade. If it continues, as the Sandinista economic planners promise, it could be one of the most sustained and important economic runs in Nicaragua’s history, rivaling the boom days of the Somoza dynasty, when Nicaragua was the economic powerhouse of Central America.

The Sandinista government, self-proclaimed experts in interpreting public will and determining the commonweal, claim “Most Nicaraguans have a positive opinion of the work of President Daniel Ortega.” This same imperious logic was the basis of Ortega’s argument for sidestepping the Constitution to run for reelection. (The people insist I do this; so constitutional Article 147 be damned.)

A recent note published on the government’s main propaganda website says the good times will continue in 2012. Ortega’s reelection, “Will permit (us) to continue consolidating the construction of a Nicaragua for all Nicaraguans, without exclusions,” the note reads.

Exclusions, however, are par for the course in Nicaragua’s zero-sum political game. So much so, that the members of the opposition claim they were unfairly excluded from the Nov. 6 general election process—the results of which they refuse to recognize as legal or legitimate.

Nicaragua’s ‘other majority’

After Nicaragua’s ham-fisted attempt at democratic sacrament on Nov. 6, the country’s political situation has become increasingly screwy.

Fabio Gadea, the official runner-up according to the Sandinista-controlled Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), still insists he won the election, according to a combination of extrapolation and conjecture from his party’s partial parallel vote count (the best they could manage after being shut-out of 30% of the voting stations).

International election observes claim the poll was highly suspect and intentionally opaque. Jennifer McCoy, Americas director of The Carter Center and a veteran poll watcher in Nicaragua, said the 2011 election was the worst she’s witnessed here, and concluded the results are “unverifiable.” Local electoral watchdog Ethics and Transparency said the poll failed massively on 17 of 18 measurable democratic indicators, and accuses the Sandinistas of stealing at least 150,000 ballots and 8 to 12 congressional seats. And several Republicans on Capitol Hill are calling on U.S. President Barack Obama to not recognize the Ortega government and take actions to help restore democracy in Nicaragua.

Only a handful of countries and foreign leaders—including a breakaway republic whose dubious nationhood status is recognized only by Ortega and a couple of his pals—have congratulated the Sandinista leader on his reelection. Since then, one of Ortega’s few well-wishers has died and another has been deeply embroiled in an election scandal of his own.

The roll call of foreign dignitaries at Ortega’s inauguration next month could indeed be a motley gathering of ailing and obscure figures from foreign governments.

Even more interestingly, the inaugural circus might have two tents. Fabio Gadea, instead of going quietly into the political night, will continue to be a pebble in Ortega’s shoe.

On Dec. 27, Gadea made another curious political play by announcing his own cabinet of ministers, magistrates, directors and top officials. While it’s not clear whether Gadea is toying with the idea of forming a shadow government—such as that briefly attempted by Mexican runner-up Andrés Manuel López Obredor in 2006, when he decried fraud in his narrow defeat to Mexican President Felipe Calderón—the announcement of his “what-could-have-been” cabinet is certainly provocative, especially considering Gadea’s appointment of several notable and respected Sandinista dissidents to high posts in his imaginary administration.

Yet even those named publically this week in Gadea’s parallel cabinet admit they aren’t sure what the next step is for the desultory opposition.

“I don’t think this is about creating two governments, nor do I think this was Fabio’s motivation in announcing what would have been his cabinet,” Gadea’s running mate, Edmundo Jarquín, told The Nicaragua Dispatch yesterday in an email. “I think what Fabio was trying to do—and it’s something that is both legitimate and pertinent—is remind people of two things: Firstly, there was an enormous fraud here and the government of Ortega will be both illegal and illegitimate. And secondly, that Fabio would have created a ‘government for everyone’ with a cabinet that has no political color or odor.”

Felix Maradiaga, an up-and-coming Nicaraguan political academic and the youngest member of Gadea’s wannabe cabinet, said he too thinks it would be a mistake to posture a parallel government. Maradiaga says he has no information that such a stunt will be attempted.

“I don’t think it’s a good idea to have two governments; that would not be an effective strategy, despite the fact that the Ortega government will be illegitimate as of Jan. 10,” Maradiaga, the would-be Minister of Labor, said. “Those of us who are not in agreement with the breach in the rule of law and the collapse of democracy must form a strong, intelligent, indefatigable, and peaceful opposition. Because sooner or later, freedom will impose itself upon this emerging dictatorship.”

That probably won’t happen anytime soon. Despite growing international concerns about Nicaragua’s commitment to democracy, the opposition continues to scatter like mice at all crucial moments.

The implosion of the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) under former President and opposition strongman Arnoldo Alemán has been galactic in nature, collapsing from a star to a white dwarf in the period of two elections. The PLC’s quick burnout has created a void that no one—including Eduardo Montealegre or Fabio Gadea—has filled convincingly.

As the opposition continues to stare at the wall like an author with writer’s block, Ortega’s obsequious administration will continue to project the image of unity and forward motion, despite driving Nicaragua’s institutional democracy like a cheap rental car.

For now, the lack of a meaningful democratic opposition has created the illusion of stability and progress. And for the industry captains of Nicaragua’s nascent business and investment class, those conditions provide solid-enough ground to gain traction, at least for the moment.

“They say that in Latin America, important development occurs during periods of dictatorship,” said one of Nicaragua’s leading investors in a recent interview with The Nicaragua Dispatch.

Still, he warned, it’s important not to confuse short-term gain with sustainable development.

“Dictatorships generally go to hell because dictators love power and so they stay in power too long,” he said. “And that’s the danger because once you’ve advanced past a certain point the country starts going backwards because power corrupts and eventually the person is corrupted.”

Next: Part II: Does the next Ortega government represent continuity or crisis?